Bitcoin is starting to look more interesting as we head into a new trading week, despite the erosion of the post-FOMC gains.
The price action around Bitcoin has suggested at times that a decent recovery could start to take hold, but whether that potential recovery can turn into something more meaningful or not is still debatable.
Looking at Cryptoquant's Inactive Supply Shift Index the data is clear, Bitcoin’s long-term holders, who have kept their coins untouched for at least a year still aren’t selling.
Source: Cryptoquant.com
This strongly suggests that the bull run is not yet over, and we could well be seeing a recovery in the second quarter of this year.
In the short-term, Hyblockcapital's excellent HeatMap shows that liquidity is starting to build up towards the 100,000 area.
Source: Hyblockcapital.com
Our in-house view remains that a rebound towards that area is coming, but it remains crucial that Bitcoin holds above the 80,000 level in the next two-weeks for that to happen.
At the moment Biyond's indicators are a pretty mixed bag in terms of directional bias, with the main takeaway being "Bitcoin is becoming less bearish".
For example, Biyond Atlas has moved away from the dizzying heights of being 200.00 plus (rare oversold conditions) and is turning away from that extreme reading.
Source: Biyond.co
The current 101.65 reading does not scream Bull yet, but it suggests the Bear pressure is somewhat weakening.
In terms of Biyond Vanguard, we are still not seeing any Green on the lower or higher time frames.
Source: Tradingview.com
Most notably, the 3-day Vanguard is still Orange, despite the fact Bitcoin traded nearly 10,000 USD away from it's recent low this week.
This creates a disturbing bearish divergence, which in truth has caused every rally to reverse this year.
In simple terms, upward movements need to have Blue or Green candles to back them, or it's likely a fake move.
Source: Biyond.co
Overall, we feel that a Bitcoin recovery in April is still the highest probability outcome.
As stated in my Biyond Daily newsletter many times, expect to see 91,000 and then 96,000 in the coming weeks if 80,000 support continues to hold.
