This week, I would like to discuss the implications of the 2024 election result, and where Bitcoin may trade in the run-up to the election.
I started to think about writing this article after reading an opinion piece from the British journalist and author Douglas Murray, who wrote that if Biden wins the 2024 the U.S. decline will continue, but if Trump wins then the U.S. will burn via social unrest.
In reality, the election is important on a global scale as the U.S. is still the biggest and most liquid capital market and the country with the dominant reserve currency has always been a key determinant of the global outlook.
I also believe that the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election could be pivotal in shaping the next cryptocurrency bull market, with candidates' stances on crypto also being an important factor.
I think that Bitcoin is well placed to be trading between the $60,000 to $80,000 range by November 2024, especially if we consider there is many bullish catalysts like to play out before the election.
Source: TradingView.com
These catalysts include the 2024 Bitcoin halving, a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval in the United States this month, and potential rate cuts from the Fed.
Exploring a Democratic victory is by far the easier element to predict for me. In such a scenario many analysts, including myself foresee a continued decline in American dominance and more Bitcoin upside.
Think ever-decreasing energy dominance, more power shifting to emerging economies, such as new and existing BRICS members, and the possibility for the Ukraine conflict to just rage on indefinitely.
In such a scenario, I don't think Bitcoin goes much lower than $58,000 during this or the next bull cycle. I would certainly be inclined to see Bitcoin becoming far more of a global currency force.
Source: Twitter.com
Pricing this could be tricky, but I do believe Bitcoin exceeds $100,000 in this scenario, and once it breaks this level, the psychology breakout could be severe, meaning higher numbers are quickly reached that defy belief and more in line with people like Plan B.
Always a student of trading history, I would like you to consider the historic commodity trades and trends of old during the heyday of American dominance around the early 1900s.
In the past, when commodity prices broke big psychological numbers, for exactly a cotton or coffee pierced through big numbers, $100.00, then $150.00 or $200.000 quickly followed. Breaking $100,000 for Bitcoin could be the same.
Source: SFU.Ca
Before I get to the Trump outcome, I'd like to quickly touch upon the importance of candidates' crypto stances in the upcoming 2024 and 2028 elections.
Very simply, with Bitcoin’s increasing prominence over time and the significance of the young voter demographic, it will be interesting to watch how presidential candidates’ stances on crypto evolve and to see how and if they play a role in the American Presidential elections.
Presidents are responsible for appointing the heads of more than 50 independent federal commissions that can influence various aspects of crypto, including the SEC, CFTC, Federal Reserve, and Treasury.
Looking at a Ruplican party victory, Donald Trump is proposing to introduce a 10 percent across-the-board tariff on all imports. Also known as protectionism.
The U.S. did something similar in terms of tariffs in the 1930s. This would surely lead to retaliation. It would also do huge damage to the World Trade Organization, by repudiating U.S. commitments to lower tariff barriers over many decades.
Trump's protectionist and isolationist tendencies would also terrify NATO. I also feel Trump could try to stop the Ukraine war, this would be bullish for risk-on assets. All things to consider or for the markets to consider.
Another consequence of a Trump win is energy policy reversal and a potential last-ditch attempt at saving U.S. dollar dominance. Trump will fight to reverse many measures in Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act.
Axios writes that "if he (Trump)is elected president, the domestic and global repercussions will be seismic, will dwarf any other event of this year, and will only grow into 2025 as he takes office."
Source: Axios.com
My take is that a Trump win holds many uncertainties for Bitcoin, and we could well see a big technical correction from near all-time highs as so many unknowns come.
I would not bet that Bitcoin would exceed $100,000 during his first year potentially in office. The upper limit could be near $95,000, and Bitcoin trading with a range between $45,000 to $95,000.
