The upcoming trading week is going to be particularly important due to the potential volatility that the Fed rate decision could create for Bitcoin.
Outside of our own indicators, the technicals show that Bitcoin could soon need to make a new bullish breakout or it faces the risk of being smacked back down to the $90,000 level once again.
Specifically, a triangle shape pattern is highlighting ongoing the risk of $10,000 moves once the $99,000 to $109,000 range is broken.
Source: Tradingview.com
I think today's weekly price close will be huge for Bitcoin and we will be paying close attention to the close as it will likely hold some technical clues.
Failure to close the week above the $105,000 to $107,300 level today could Bitcoin test towards a minimum of $100,000 next week.
On the positive side, a weekly close above these levels could encourage a move towards $116,000 and possibly $120,000 areas.
My 2025 targets are currently ranging between $150,000 to $200,000.
Source: Tradingview.com
Looking at our indicators, and Biyond Vanguard is issuing a Green buy signal on the weekly time frame, further tilting the odds to the bulls.
The 3-day and 12-hour time frames are ultra-choppy right now, which fits well with the choppy price action of late.
Source: Biyond.co
Notably, a reversal risk still exists as the 3-day Vanguard still has bearish divergence down to $90,000.
Source: Biyond.co
Biyond Atlas is now turning lower (inverse indicator meaning bullish). However, for the ultimate buy momentum signal we now need to see Atlas moving into the Green zone.
In November 2024, this scenario created a turbo-charged buy signal when Vanguard weekly was also Green and Atlas moved into the Green zone.
Hopefully, this will happen again and rather soon.
Source: Biyond.co
Overall, I am more bullish than bearish, even at current levels and even with the "Sell the news" risk on the table as Trump stopped short of a Bitcoin Reserve announcement.
Ideally, we will see the sell-side risk removed once a new ATH is forged. We just need to be mindful of the two main risks right now.
1. Bitcoin Holders folding too soon and losing their Long positioning in a bull cycle 2. A final sell-off and sweep down to the January lows.
