BlackRock's application to offer a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) has been added to the official docket of the Securities and Exchange Commission as part of its proposed rule change process.
It has become clear to me from subscribers' emails that information on the BlackRock ETF status is lacking. With the info I have and current research, I will attempt to address these questions.
Starting with the basics. A Bitcoin ETF would allow investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without directly owning or trading the cryptocurrency. Such increased accessibility for both can lead to a larger pool of potential investors entering the market, driving up demand for Bitcoin.
Also, the introduction of a Bitcoin ETF will undoubtedly attract institutional investors who have strict regulatory requirements and risk management policies. They’ll bring with them capital, expertise and clout.
The story so far is that SEC signaled last month that BlackRock's application was "lacking", due to missing Surveillance Sharing Agreements.
The SEC wanted the filings to name the exchange that would carry out the SSA mentioned in the original filings. These SSAs are supposed to show the SEC that potential Bitcoin ETF issuers are able to detect fraud and manipulation in the Bitcoin market.
The specific addition of an SSA to these applications is widely viewed as the key to finally getting the Bitcoin ETF approved in the United States.
If this happens it will be a significant milestone, which will generate huge mainstream attention and media coverage which will drive up demand and prices in the crypto market.
Europe is preparing to launch its first spot Bitcoin ETF. According to Jacobi Asset Management, the asset manager responsible for the Bitcoin ETF listing, the ETF is set to go live this July.
BlackRock's application is now on the SEC's official calendar, it will be published in the Federal Register and trigger a 21-day public comment period.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has expressed skepticism over the SEC granting approvals before the end of the year, noting its hard stance toward cryptocurrencies.
Bloomberg research analyst James Seyffart has said that he believes the SEC will either approve or deny BlackRock’s request by March of next year.
The analyst also notes that the bids of ARK Invest and 21Shares will likely be decided by early January.
This is a considerable wait for crypto markets. My concern will be what will drive crypto prices higher until January or even March if we have to wait that Long.
A pushing back of the recession narrative, reduced rate hike expectations, stock markets rallying to fresh highs, and the greenback on the slide below 100.00 could all help. However, it is doubtful to get BTC much beyond $35,000.
Crypto had somewhat of a shock on Friday with the big pullback to $30,000. I was also very surprised. Still, it did remind me of a classic wash and rinse before BTC starts its next leg higher.
I have often said the whales work in clips of $10,000 before they book major profits. It's something I have seen Bitcoin whales do time and time again.
The price action around $26,000 was consistent with this type of behavior, hence why a took the recent signal down in this area a few weeks back.
This is why I am still hopeful of a major price move unfolding towards $36,000 so the whales can complete the $10,000 price ramp.
Without the ETF news this summer I am curious just how BTC reaches $36,000 this summer as the charts suggest.
