Bitcoin hit a new all-time high this week moving above the $100,000 level, however, bulls are somewhat struggling to maintain this key psychological level.
Last week I noted that our quant models Vanguard and Atlas were suggesting a lessoning of bull momentum for the first time since the U.S. election verdict.
Source: Biyond.co
Our Biyond Long Vs Short ratio, measuring Global Binance accounts, is still highlighting the negative effects on Bitcoin when retail accounts start to go Long.
True to form, retail did exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time this week according to the Biyond Long Vs Short ratio.
Source: Biyond.co
Retail going Short at $94,000 and then going Long at $104,000 tipped and front run the pain trades ahead.
As things stand, Retail traders are once again going Short, so the potentiality for more upside exists. Back to Vanguard.
Source: Biyond.co
Vanguard weekly is suggesting a fresh weekly (Green) Buy signal will generated if we close the weekly candle above $100,000 this week.
As mentioned in my Daily newsletters, I think whether we get a Blue or Green weekly Vanguard candle could make all the difference.
It's a very obvious thing, but the ultimate Vanguard signal is when every timeframe is Green like after the election.
Source: Santiment.net
Santiment recorded the largest positve social sentiment reading towards Bitcoin since June 2023 this week.
Retail's propensity to do the wrong thing and poor market timing could be the key determinant here as we approach the Xmas period.
The last time Positive social sentiment was this high Bitcoin dropped from its ATH by some 30 percent plus.
Source: Santiment.net
If we took another 30 percent hit from the highs of $104,000 it would take us to roughly. $72,000 would be the approx target. Just saying.
Much will depend on the weekly close today in regard to what happens next week, Biyond Atlas is also turning higher, offering a clear profit-taking warning until such time as it turns down.
I am therefore saying be cautious next week, but don't be short BTC.
