Bitcoin has had a bad finish to the week, and unless things turn around quickly next week the monthly and quarterly close will also be reasonably bearish.
As things stand, the technicals for Bitcoin are weakening, but not conclusively negative.
Source: Tradingview.com
For example, bulls are still keeping the price above the yearly pivot point at 80,000 and the 50-week moving average close to 77,000. These are two critical areas to watch for next month and quarter.
On-chain data is also showing extensive bullish Daily Active Address divergence extending to 87,000, 90,000 and 94,000, further hinting that a rebound may be possible.
Source: Santiment.net
Bitcoin's ratio of supply on exchanges has officially dropped to, the lowest since February 20, 2018. The 7-year shows 'hodling' for the long-term prevails, regardless of short-term price bearishness
This solid exchange supply hints at a thumbs up from institutions and long-term holders.
And finally, consider the following, lower exchange balances have historically coincided with bullish conditions.
Source: Biyond.co
Our own indicators are also showing strange divergences from the current price action, which looks pretty bearish in the immediate term anyway.
Biyond Atlas has tumbled again over recent days, reaching 101.30, meaning it's dropped about 30 points this week, and about 60 points in the last 2-weeks.
Source: Alternative.me
This suggests that bearish conditions are decreasing, and that the sentiment towards crypto doesn't match the on-chain factors Atlas utilizes.
What does match the price action is Biyond Vanguard weekly, as it shows that a Red sell signal will be issued this week if we close around current levels.
Source: Tradingview.com
During the recent recovery towards 88,000 Biyond Vanguard has been exclusively Orange on the 3-day time frame, suggesting that the run higher lacked substance.
The monthly Biyond Vanguard is about to close in Orange for the second month.
Source: Tradingview.com
However, if history repeats itself, and the monthly candle sequence from the previous bull cycle repeats itself, then Bitcoin is about to put in a higher monthly low and close the month above 96,000 in April.
Looking at monthly chart the set-up is certainly there, so all eyes on the current yearly low (coupled with the mentioned divergences) for further confirmation.
