This week I will be showcasing some questions and answers between me and crypto enthusiasts. Some are from subscribers or private messages I received on social media.
I feel that this could be something different for this week's article but also very interesting for readers.
I hope you enjoy and if you want me to publish more of this type of Q+A content please provide me with some feedback, or better still send me some questions you are happy for me to publically answer.
Source: Dreamstime.com
Q. What is your thoughts about Bitcoin and altcoins if WW3 happens in the middle east or nuclear war with Russia, and also the potentiality for all out war between Israel and other nations.
A. I think we must study the behaviour and price action of the stock market in order to understand these type of scenario.
The stock market goes into risk-off mode at times during war headlines or major risk-off scenarios. But invariably traders get trapped as the market recovers, as they caught up in what they think what is going to happen rather than observing the actually reality.
My thinking behind this is that if a nuclear conflict did occur we would'nt be around to witness it for long anyway.
So the smart money knows this, and if a nuclear war did god forbid actually happen they would not care stocks or Bitcoin but about day-to-day survival.
Q. You have changed your style of trading in 2024 compared to how you used to trade. Why do not issue many short-term signals anymore they used to be fantastic.
A. This is going to be a lengthy explanation, so apologies in adavnce. I am really not big on talking at length as people switch off quickly, have much shorter attention spans, plus I personally like to get straight to the point mostly. However, this question infact requires a detailed response.
I faced a very difficult decision in 2024 in regard to how to trade the crypto market according to the medium to long-term market view.
Previously the success of my short-term signals had gained me a good following and further complimented my FX track record.
In 2024 I foresaw two very distinct outcomes, and I knew that I would be doing Biyonf subscribers a major disservice if I didnt trade the market exactly as I would my own account.
The situation I mainly foresaw was a massive amount of attempts from the crypto gods or market makers to shake traders out of their positions, because I was (and am) 99.9% sure Bitcoin is headed to a minimum $90,000.
In order to trade this scenario I knew taking a position and just sitting through it with an ultra wide stop loss was the way to play it. So that's what I did.
I knew very well, this could be detrimental to the following and the subscriber base Biyond has, but ultimtely it was the safest and best option.
I do feel vindicated somewhat at the time of writing, given the sheer amount of bear attempts at $50,000 that have failed, and the price looks to be moving nicely back towards $70,000.
This pre-election BTC rising outcome was always the playbook, and I feel just being positioned long ahead of time is much better than trying to time and trade Bitcoin, and then getting constantly stopped out or booking profits way too early. I hope this answers your questions.
Q. Why didn't you issue any short signals this year, Bitcoin has collapsed numerous times from $70,000 or just below.
A. Honestly, I would not short this market under any circumstances. Even with you being absolutely right and correct to mention about the large amount of money to be on the short side.
The price action is so bullish on dips, which speaks to an asset class with huge buying interest and that wants to go much much higher.
If I felt the bull market was over I would short BTC in an instance, but this is not the time. And I don't expect that time until mid to late 2025.
* Just to add once the BTC ETF was approved and Bitcoin broke $50,000, I doubt it will return again anytime soon until the bull cycle is over. So with that in mind, being short is a suicide move in my opinion.
Q. Your call for $90,000 seems far too low given what other crypto analysts are predicting and the fundamentals. Will you raise it?
A. One of the most important lessons I have learned in trading is not to listen to other people and to follow my own path.
I purposely avoid others opinions on a daily basis. I have to ask myself the question, if I live and die on other people's opinions or tips, what I have learned myself?
Should the price action warrant me thinking Bitcoin will exceed $90,000 if it gets to that area and still looks like it wants to head higher, I will be prepared for that moment and adjust accordingly.
But in reality $90,000 is achievable and makes Biyond and subscribers a good profit. That's what I care about the most.
Q. When will you be issuing more short or medium-term altcoins signals. Back in the day you produced some great ones.
A. Probably when Bitcoin flashes green on the weekly Vanguard indicator. This would give the confidence to feel the market is going to trend much higher.
Alternatively, I see something out of the ordinary, such as the start of alt season that would cause me to issue a new alt signal which as close to a sure thing as possible.
Q. How do you feel about quant trading and A.I. as I know you are now combining it into your trading.
As a creature of habit, I fought automated trading for a long time, however, its hard to argue with our Vanguard indicator and certain time frame combinations as they have back-tested results and high sharpe ratios.
Personally, I still feel a well trained human who has bundles of experience is better that automation, but then again I am am old trading dinosaur!
Q. What is your very long-term prediction for Bitcoin.
A. I think at the end of this cycle ($90,000 to $110,000 top) we still have one more major buying opportunity before Bitcoin really takes off above $100,000 and becomes very difficult to trade.
At present, my base case scenario is a 70 percent plus correction from $90,000, which would be the final opportunity to buy Bitcoin as both a low-risk trade and an absurdly low price.
