Today I thought I would have a look at Bitcoin from an on-chain perspective and try to decipher whether the next move will be up or down in the short-term.
I just quickly want to say that if there is a strong counter-response from Iran over the coming days (although now unlikely then the analysis here would be null and void because all bets are off and a big down move would be extremely probable.
Starting with the three sub-sets of Whales and their behavior (mega, mid-tier and shark addresses). The most notable thing here is that they have been not actively buying or selling in a big way for nearly the last month.
Source: Santiment.net
Considering the decline from $72,000 recently this would imply that a large majority of mega, mid-tier, and shark whale addresses shown in this chart are expecting higher prices.
Do also note that if they turn the tables and relinquish their holdings then a very large and painful price drop could happen.
Source: Santiment.net
The last point I'd like to make about Whales is the shark and mid-tier addresses are still close to all-time highs in terms of holding.
This fits nicely with the profile of the market in a sense and current conditions. It further hints that a new phase of unprecedented whale buying is going to start or indeed a decent-sized correction.
Source: Santiment.net
On the flip side, you can see that the three smallest holders of BTC wallets, name that what you will, minions, minnows, or whatever, the point is they have aggressively been buying over the past month.
In the grand scheme of things, retail holdings are close to being at ATH's. What we can draw from this you can draw is subject to opinion.
Source: Santiment.net
Typically, retail traders have poor market timing and buy the tops. However, a longer-term chart from 2016 onwards shows the three subsets of small whales have been extremely correct in holding BTC through the bad times and sucking up painful multi-year drops.
It's too optimistic to suggest that are right about Bitcoin going higher again to new ATH's, so I rather prefer to watch what Whales are doing.
Source: Santiment.net
Analysis looking at the amount of Tether supply on exchanges for the Ethereum network shows that this metric is still rising.
While not at all-time highs yet, a quick glance at the historical chart and we can see that this metric started to grow during the start of the summer 202 bull market and remains in a healthy position.
It's quite clear a downtrend in the metric started when the market became distressed in 2022.
While this metric cannot capture exact highs and lows, it does suggest that confidence remains robust toward current market conditions.
