Weekly Analysis

Biyond Weekly: Positive Correlations

August 18, 2024

Biyond Weekly: Positive Correlations

Bitcoin has had a very frustrating week after falling to break past the $62,000 level after the U.S. CPI and PPI reports further increased the chances of a rate hike in September.
Liquidations, frustrations, and many people losing their patience with this current bull cycle. However, there are some signs emerging Bitcoin is about to move higher again.


Source: Cryptocompare.com

Starting with the obvious correlations, and the stock market is a very obvious example while Bitcoin will soon start to play catch-up.

Very simply, the U.S. benchmark index, the S&P500, has recovered about 80% of it's losses from it's recent ATH.


Source: Tradingview.com

If Bitcoin were to play catch-up in percentage terms next week we would probably be seeing BTC/USD at $66,000. 

This is also a target for many technicals systems right now, including the Demark indicator.

This weeks close for the S&P500 was super bullish. There are a few nasty gaps on the charts, but it does look like this was a typical bull market correction.


Source: Tradingview.com

For example, the index classically bounced just shy of it's 200-day moving average. The 6,000 to 6,100 area looks a good pre or post-election call for the S&P500 to me.


Source: Tradingview.com

Then we look at Gold, not a perfect correlation, but wealthy investors and many other players have done marvelously well from the Bitcoin and Gold de-dollarization strategy.

The yellow-metal recently had many bears calling for a correction $2,300 per oz recently, but trapped those shorts and tagged a new ATH.

Many commodity analysts I know are starting to say the unthinkable to some people. Gold going to $2,700 per oz by Christmas, and in per KG terms that's close to $100,000 per kg.


Source: Tradingview.com

Next up is the U.S. dollar index, which with debt levels surging and the possibility other another Democrat term does not look good.

The chart for the U.S. dollar index shows a clear head and shoulders pattern, with the price dangerously close to the neckline.

If the pattern is ignited in the coming weeks, mark my words, Bitcoin will surge to new all-time highs and so will Gold.


Source: Cryptoquant.com

Looking to whale data, and long-term holders are aggressively buying the dip, potentially setting the stage for the next significant price rally.

According to the latest data from Cryptoquant this week the Bitcoin whales ratio is currently at “extremely high” levels.

Data from Santiment also confirms that shark addresses, with 100-1,000 Bitcoins have been spiking recently.


Source: Santiment.net

The broader point of today's article is that despite the recent setbacks, there are still plenty of indications Bitcoin is going towards $90,000, and probably much-higher.

In the short-term, if Bitcoin can continue to defend $57,000 support then a return to $66,000 looks on the cards.
 

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