As the title of my weekly article suggests I am going to be taking a look at the positives and the negatives for Bitcoin at this current moment in time, and also what the Biyond Trader indicators are saying.
The main purpose of which is to determine the most likely scenario for Bitcoin and the potential invalidation points for the current bull trend.
Starting with the Positive and Negative fundamentals for Bitcoin here is my current watch list.
The Positives For Bitcoin:
1. More small bank failures expected to benefit Bitcoin
2. Upcoming Hong Kong crypto hub
3. Possible Relief rally from Debt Ceiling resolution
4. Neutralization of Transaction fees after the recent spikes
5. The Largest Weekly Outflows of Bitcoin Short products ever last week
The Negatives For Bitcoin:
1. U.S. economic indicators are worsening (U.S. weekly jobs report this week was awful)
2. No Debt Ceiling resolution + Liquidity Crisis
3. Ongoing Regulatory issues
4. Stubborn Inflation
5. Large Increase in Non-Professional Futures traders going Long.
Now we look at the on-chain situation for Bitcoin
The Positives
Most cohorts are back in the "Opportunity Zone" according to the MVRV Ratio.
Sentiment is also ultra bearish towards Bitcoin. In Fact, Sentiment tanked to new 2023 lows.
The Supply of BTC is also at multi-year lows.
Shark and Mid-tier whale addresses are not selling (however, it is a stretch to call it major buying at this stage).
The Negatives
The Puell Multiple looks extended and has possibly peaked.
Huge Spike in Dormant Coins last week which could suggest a more extended downside move towards $24,000-$22,000.
All the different sub-set of small Holders are close to record highs. This has typically been a very bearish signal. (But it has actually not been the case in 2023 so far).
Santiment.net
Trading Volume has also dried up recently. Not a great sign.
Santiment.net
Biyond Indicators
In a nutshell, the Biyond Trader Indicators favor the bear side right now.
The Firefly Alpha Score highlights that selling pressure remains strong, so the balance of power is with the bears currently.
The Biyond Atlas Indicator is also suggesting that bear strength rules currently. This is an inverse indicator meaning up means down and down means up. In short, its built upside down.
Don't let that put you off as this indicator has caught a fair few major peaks and lows, and the Atlas indicator recently nailed the March high.
The Technicals
On the technical front, I am more positive. Although admitedly it is touch and go right now.
Anyone who reads my regular Biyond Daily email will know that I have been screaming for the end of Wave C around $26,000 to $25,000 and a resumption of the prevailing trend
Much confidence can also be taken from the bounce from Bitcoin's 200-week Moving Average. That was a text book "Test and Bounce". If that holds and we head higher I'd become very bullish for new 2023 highs.
The cut-off point for that theory is really $24,800, max $24,400. I don't see BTC coming back anytime soon if we break that area.Conversely, a quick move above $28,400 next week should confirm this has been a fake down move.
Interesting times ahead for crypto next week despite the lack of volume and mixed signals. The Biyond Trader signals dashboard is also Live with two ongoing trade signals to make it that more interesting still.
