This week I will be looking at the sentiment,on-chain, and technical landscape for Bitcoin after the recent news surrounding BlackRock, as the world's largest asset manager seeks a Bitcoin ETF.
The positives and negatives of BlackRock getting an ETF approved are numerous, but still speculative at this stage.
A BlackRock Bitcoin Trust would obviously signal a high degree of regulatory acceptance, which could instill confidence among other financial institutions and pave the way for more extensive cryptocurrency offerings.
Still, the ongoing scrutiny from regulators underscores the urgency for a transparent, balanced, and robust regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies.
Plus, such a framework could nurture technological innovation while ensuring robust investor protection.
Others worry this might not even be passed, and also about institutions hijacking the crypto industry, driving a shift from a retail safe haven to a cold corporate controlled asset class.
My point is, people could drive themselves crazy thinking about the Pros and cons of this application. The narrative is what matters at the moment, and currently, it's a much-needed positive crypto driver.
With that said, some heavyweight indicators are signaling the possibility of a much larger up move coming. I'm not making any big price predictions here like Plan B.
With thay said, let's dive in.
Starting with Sentiment. Prior to the BlackRock news BTC Weighted Social Sentiment dived to its lowest level in over 3 years.
This is important as most of the big trend changes for crypto have happened when Sentiment hits extremes.
Another important occurrence this week was the largest-ever spike in USDT Token Age Consumed. As we know Age Consumed can be either a bullish or bearish signal​
As a reference point, we may want to look at other metrics to confirm what direction the spike might be signaling.
The second-largest uptick of the year in Dormant BTC 5-year Coins could indicate a bull signal.
Whale Alert also flagged massive movement, with some 10,000 BTC being shifted after the BlackRock announcement.
Whale Alert
Now we come to the curious case of the Super and Mega Whales.
Supply distribution data shows a big spike in Mega Whales after the Blackrock news. The same type of spike happened prior to Bitcoin's ascent in January. Smart money anyone?
On the flip side, the next largest set of Whales below this category decided to dump BTC. I can only assume they maybe are going Long futures and Short spot as some type of hedge. I could be wrong here though.
Not much reaction from Mid-tier Whales or Shark Addresses yet. I am keeping a close watch on them.
Other noticeable points since the BlackRock news includes a major shift in the CoT futures report, with Pro Traders going Long, a big drop in the BTC/USD Long/Short Ratio, and the emergence of some big Options call above $30,000 before the end of the month.
Technically, Bitcoin has made an impressive bounce back the very important $26,280 to $26,400 area. A real chance exists of a test of $28,400-$30,000 if we see move above $27,400 next week.
Elliot Wave analysis favors a move to $32,000 if we see a move past $28,400 next week. However, it is probably a bit premature to say this and admittedly I am not the best Elliot Wave technician.
On the bear side, which we need to cover, the whole move comes into question if BTC comes crashing below $25,300 next week. $24,300 and $22,800 then comes into focus as dip-buy areas if you are still bullish.
Overall, I am strangely optimistic that this move in BTC could have real legs. I also want to note that the stock market has entered into extreme greed and crypto not so much.
Certainly crypto is an asset class that could play catch up to the eight-straight weeks of gains in the Nasdaq and the five-straight weeks for the S&P500 based on the BlackRock hype alone.
