I thought this week I would look for clues about Bitcoin could be headed in 2024, with the key driving forces likely to be narratives, events, and adoption.
Starting in reverse order, the Bitcoin upside in 2024 so far looks it will be primarily driven by the expectations of institutional adoption.
Galaxy Digital research associate Charles Yu estimated that the total addressable market size for Bitcoin ETFs would reach $14.4 trillion within the first year after their launch.
Source: Galaxy.com
He also projected a 74% increase in Bitcoin's price during that initial year, pushing it to $59,200.
According to Yu's calculations, Bitcoin's price would experience a 6.2% increase in the first month following the ETF launch before gradually tapering off to a 3.7% monthly growth rate by the twelfth month.
The financial services firm Matrixport offered a similar assessment, suggesting that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF could drive Bitcoin's price to a range between $42,000 and $56,00
Source: CoinMarketCap.com
Also, open interest in Bitcoin derivatives is on the rise, indicating increased attention from traditional finance market investors toward Bitcoin.
Bitcoin options market hit a new all-time high with all put and call positions reaching $16.35 billion, surpassing previous records from 2021 bull market.
Despite not reaching an all-time high, the Bitcoin futures market also has seen a surge with an annual peak of $13.59 billion, indicating the return of traditional finance to Bitcoin trading.
The previous bull run was driven by the DeFi summer, followed by the NFT minting craze, followed by spot ETF excitement. When it was clear that it wasn't going to happen, Bitcoin suddenly started falling.
Source: Tradingview.com
It will be very interesting to see if Bitcoin can regain its all-time price high in 2024. I think the charts look very positive technically, and especially if BTC can surpass $44,000.
Sometimes we can gain great insight into the future price journey of a crypto looking at cross pairs. With that said, ETH/BTC and LINK/BTC do provide some notable clues.
Starting with ETH/BTC and it looks very much like more downside ahead based on the charts I am seeing.
Source: Tradingview.com
ETH/BTC will probably target $0.0250 in 2024. This means another 50% of downside in this pair if I am correct in reading the charts.
This, therefore, implies not only more upside for BTC, but probably sizeable underperformance in ETH.
My gut feeling is ETH/USD moves high by around 50 to 70%, but Bitcoin probably more than double in value in 2024, especially if you get a solid entry point close to $30,000.
Source: TradingView.com
The LINK/BTC is not an easy one chart to read, which usually means things could be around Even Stevens in 2024, with both making tremendous gains, so being both these cryptos could be wise to maximize gains, and maybe even at different intervals.
And finally, my 2024 price prediction. I think we see a new all-time high. Certainly the number $94,000 features heavily in my analysis.
I am not going to say we reach this area in 2024, but a new all-time high is very achievable.
