Bitcoin looks very fragile right now on many fronts following a series of upside failures above $60,000 since Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech.
Following a very soft August price close the risk for September is that Bitcoin continues to gravitate lower as price rallies are being sold.
Source: Biyond.co
This week I thought I would look at some of the indicators that I use in order to determine just how bad the current technical situation for Bitcoin really is.
Starting with the Ichimoku indicator and the weekly time frame. Thankfully, there is no weekly sell signal as the Lagging Line (Green line) has yet to move under the cloud, just close to the base and the conversion lines.
Source: Tradingview.com
The fact that the Lagging Line is still above the base and the conversion lines is a very positive sign.
However, the fact the Lagging Line is inching towards he base and the conversion lines means the price really needs to rebound soon to stop a much larger decline.
Source: Tradingview.com
Ichimoku support comes in towards the low $54,000s, which perfectly matches a key long-term trendline.
Now the bad news. Several indicators I have, including the Ichimoku monthly time frame, Trendline Lines analysis and Pivot Point all suggest the worst case scenario is $45,000 breaks.
Source: Tradingview.com
All of the above points to the fact that Bitcoin is going to $36,000 if we see a definitive breakdown with momentum.
The Williams Alligator indicator shows an extremely bad close coming up on the weekly, however, one key factor is not happening yet.
Source: Tradingview.com
This key factor is Momentum. If we see the Green line crossing under and downward Momentum happening then a weekly sell signal will happen and the loss could be nasty for Bitcoin.
Bulls need to drag the price above $62,000 to change the short-term picture, and ideally then bullish momentum would need to build above $62,000 to get a weekly buy signal.
